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This is great news for the civilians currently still staying in Syria and are suffering from the fighting between the government and the rebellion. While both sides mention that they will hold to this agreement I have doubts that this will really lead to a peace agreement between the two parties or in the worst case the cease fire might not hold at all.
Because previous cease fires have failed I do not really think this will be any different, perhaps it will appear to have effect at first but will eventually collapse with time as minor skirmishes escalate.
The more reason so because there seems to be the intent to actively prosecute Syrian leaders ("Carla del Ponte, a former UN prosecutor who led the case against former
Yugoslav leader Slobodan Milosevic and recently joined the Syria
commission, said she saw parallels with her earlier work.").
This seems to leave him with little or none maneuvering space, maybe forcing him to go on doing violence. I think the sales of weapons to Syria by Russia really signals how solid Russia is with it's support. I believe that the news we received is biased, mainly because the report of the civilian attack during earlier this year. I do not think that the Syrian leaders are truly that stupid as to attack their own people and make them lose faith in the government, if any of you have read "All the shah's men" I think you may recognize a pattern similar happening here. The rebel Free Syrian Army warned it would target civilian planes using the airports in Damascus and Aleppo from tomorrow. I think the reason NaT0 is using these indirect measures is because there is in fact a Russian naval base in Tartus, and risking direct confrontation with russia is too risky and dangerous.
Thursday, October 25, 2012
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