http://www.cnn.com/2012/10/07/world/asia/south-korea-us-announcement/index.html?hpt=wo_c2
I predict that this expansion of the range of South Korean missiles will achieve the opposite of what the intentions were. The article states that this is "a move a senior security official says will deter military provocation from North Korea." I believe that expanding South Korea's missile range will actually provoke more military action by North Korea against South Korea because they will interpret South Korea's move as offensive. They will see the expansion of the missile range as a threat and will feel the need to put more effort into building their military and possibly attacking South Korea.
I think that South Korea did this because of the recent tensions between the two Koreas. These tensions are partially due to North Korea launching a test long-range missile. South Korea feels the need to protect its people and feels that by increasing its missile range for defensive reasons, it is accomplishing this goal.
In the empires we have been studying, one of their main focuses was military interaction with other empires. They questioned making defensive moves similar to South Korea's expansion of their missile range in order to protect their people and maintain their territory.
Will this move by South Korea increase or decrease military provocation from North Korea?
Is it possible that the conflict between the Korea's will be rekindled by this event?
Should the US have supported and allowed this event to occur?
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I think that the extension of the range of South Korea’s ballistic missiles could potentially stir up some conflict between it and North Korea. One of the near-inevitable effects is that North Korea will see this action as a threat, and increase their own military strength as a result. This is almost common sense; if a neighboring state begins making preparations for war, then the most logical course of action is to improve your own military. However, the knowledge of South Korea’s increased missile range could very well stop North Korea from attacking.
ReplyDeleteNorth Korea will have to decide whether or not the potential destruction and loss of life in their country will outweigh any victory. This is rather like the principal of mutually assured destruction on a somewhat smaller scale. As with any war, there will be casualties on both sides. Perhaps the increase in range of South Korea’s ballistic missiles will be enough to prevent North Korea from attacking in the future. The outcome of this whole venture depends wholly on whether or not North Korea judges that the potential losses that will result in attacking South Korea will outweigh the possible gains.